Scenario presets
Cohort ARR Waterfall Inputs
Retention Diagnostics & Cohort Health
Calculating retention metrics...
- Gross Revenue Retention (GRR)
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- Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
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- Expansion-Retention Spread (NRR - GRR)
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- Gross Churn Drag (100% - GRR)
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- Ending Retained ARR (Gross Base)
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- Ending Total Cohort ARR (with Expansion)
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- Implied Cohort Half-Life
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- Cohort Retention Health Tier
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Cohort ARR Waterfall Reconciliation Schedule
Reconciliation demonstrating beginning recurring revenue, gross churn attrition, contraction erosion, expansion lift, and ending cohort balances.
| ARR Component | Amount ($) | % of Beginning ARR | Retention Framework | Cohort Impact |
|---|
Sensitivity Analysis 1: Churn ARR vs. Contraction ARR on Gross Revenue Retention (GRR %)
Gross revenue retention percentage sensitivity across varying full cancellations and down-sell contractions.
| Churn ARR \ Contraction ARR | -40% | -20% | Base ($200K) | +20% | +40% |
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Sensitivity Analysis 2: GRR (%) vs. Time Horizon on Residual Cohort Base ($)
Projected dollar value of beginning ARR retained over multi-year horizons strictly through core renewal retention without new additions.
| GRR Rate \ Elapsed Years | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 |
|---|
Formulas and worked example
- $\text{Gross Revenue Retention (GRR)} = \frac{\text{Beginning ARR} - \text{Churn ARR} - \text{Contraction ARR}}{\text{Beginning ARR}} \times 100\%$
- $\text{Net Revenue Retention (NRR)} = \frac{\text{Beginning ARR} - \text{Churn ARR} - \text{Contraction ARR} + \text{Expansion ARR}}{\text{Beginning ARR}} \times 100\%$
- $\text{Expansion-Retention Spread} = \text{NRR} - \text{GRR} = \frac{\text{Expansion ARR}}{\text{Beginning ARR}} \times 100\%$
- $\text{Gross Churn Drag} = 100\% - \text{GRR}$
- $\text{Implied Cohort Half-Life (Years)} = \frac{\ln(0.5)}{\ln(\text{GRR} / 100)}$
- $\text{Projected Retained Base}_t = \text{Beginning ARR} \times (\frac{\text{GRR}}{100})^t$
A SaaS enterprise begins the fiscal year with $10,000,000 in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) across its existing customer cohort. Over twelve months, customers completely cancel $400,000 in ARR (4.0% full churn), and down-sell/contract by $200,000 (2.0% contraction). Retained customers expand by purchasing $2,500,000 in additional seats and add-on modules (25.0% expansion). The company's Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) is 94.0% [($10M - $0.4M - $0.2M) / $10M], demonstrating premier product-market durability and low churn friction. Its Net Revenue Retention (NRR) reaches 119.0% ($9.4M + $2.5M = $11.9M / $10M), generating an expansion-retention spread of +25.0%. At 94.0% GRR, the implied cohort half-life is 11.2 years, meaning more than half of starting customer revenue will remain intact over a decade without replacement.
Self-check quiz
1. Why can Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) never exceed 100%?
2. A company reports 115% NRR and 70% GRR. What dangerous underlying dynamic does this reveal?
3. A SaaS firm has $5M starting ARR, $300K churn, and $200K contraction. What is its GRR?
4. What is the standard GRR benchmark for top-quartile Enterprise B2B SaaS companies?
Frequently asked questions
What is Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) and how is it calculated?
Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) measures the percentage of recurring revenue retained from an existing cohort of customers over a specified period, strictly excluding upsells and expansions. It is calculated as: GRR = [(Beginning ARR - Churn ARR - Contraction ARR) / Beginning ARR] * 100%. The maximum theoretical value is 100%.
How does Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) differ from Net Revenue Retention (NRR)?
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) includes expansion, cross-sell, and upgrade revenue, allowing it to exceed 100% (often 110% to 130%+). GRR excludes all expansion, isolating only revenue lost to downgrades and cancellations. GRR is the ultimate test of core product value because strong expansion from a few large accounts cannot mask customer dissatisfaction in the broader cohort.
What is a good benchmark for Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) in SaaS?
Benchmark expectations depend on customer segment: Enterprise SaaS serving large corporations targets 90% to 95%+ GRR. Mid-market B2B software typically aims for 85% to 90% GRR, while SMB (small and midsize business) SaaS targets 75% to 80% GRR due to higher baseline business mortality.
What does a large spread between NRR and GRR indicate?
A wide spread (e.g., 120% NRR vs 75% GRR) indicates that the company relies heavily on land-and-expand upsells within a subset of customers while suffering from a leaky bucket of core customer churn. If expansion within existing accounts saturates, revenue growth can decelerate abruptly.