Counterparty Credit Risk Basel III & IFRS 13 XVA Milestone 101

Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) & XVA Lab

Model OTC derivative counterparty credit risk, Expected Exposure profiles (EE, EPE, PFE 95th/99th), unilateral CVA, DVA, Bilateral CVA (BCVA), hazard rate curves, and ISDA Credit Support Annex (CSA) collateral netting thresholds.

Institutional Presets:
Portfolio & Credit Inputs
$
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
10 bps (AAA) 180 bps (BBB) 500 bps (HY) 1500 bps (CCC)
10 bps 60 bps (AA) 150 bps 600 bps
0% 20% (Sub) 40% (ISDA Standard) 80%
5% (IR Low) 18% (Benchmark) 35% (FX/Equity) 50% (High Vol)
0% 2.5% 5.0% 10.0%
Exposure above threshold is margined under 14-day MPOR.
Unilateral CVA ($)

$186,412

0.75% of notional (15.2 bps/yr)
Debit DVA ($)

$62,137

Own credit default benefit
Bilateral BCVA ($)

$124,275

Net fair value adjustment
Peak PFE (99th)

$3,842,500

EPE: $1,420,100
Quantitative Exposure & XVA Visualizer
Expected Exposure EE(t), Potential Future Exposure PFE(95th/99th), and Effective EPE over the contract horizon.
Counterparty Credit Risk & XVA Decomposition
Component Analytical Equation Value ($) % of Notional
Risk-Free Portfolio PV PV_rf (Base MTM) $2,500,000 10.00%
Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) CVA = (1 - R_c) × ∫ Z(t) EE(t) dPD_c(t) -$186,412 -0.75%
Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA) DVA = (1 - R_b) × ∫ Z(t) NEE(t) dPD_b(t) +$62,137 +0.25%
Bilateral CVA (BCVA = CVA - DVA) Net Credit Adjustment -$124,275 -0.50%
Fair Risky Exit Value PV_risky = PV_rf - BCVA $2,375,725 9.50%
CSA Collateral Protection Benefit ΔCVA = CVA_uncollateralized - CVA_csa $0 (No CSA) 0.00%
CVA Sensitivity Matrix ($)
Counterparty CDS Spread vs. Market Risk Volatility (σ)
Bilateral BCVA Sensitivity Matrix ($)
Counterparty CDS Spread vs. Own Bank CDS Spread

Counterparty Credit Risk & XVA Framework

1. CVA Analytical Formulation

Credit Valuation Adjustment quantifies the expected loss from counterparty default across the life of an OTC derivative portfolio. In continuous-time formulation:

CVA = (1 - R_c) × ∫ Z(t) × EE(t) × dPD_c(t)
≈ (1 - R_c) × ∑ Z(t_i) × EE(t_i) × [Q_c(t_{i-1}) - Q_c(t_i)]

Where $Z(t)$ is the risk-free discount factor, $EE(t) = \mathbb{E}[\max(V(t), 0)]$ is Expected Positive Exposure, and $dPD_c(t)$ is the marginal default probability density of the counterparty bootstrapped from its market CDS spread.

2. DVA and Bilateral CVA (BCVA)

Under IFRS 13 / ASC 820 fair value accounting standards, derivative exit prices must reflect two-way default risk. Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA) measures the value of the reporting institution's own default:

DVA = (1 - R_b) × ∫ Z(t) × NEE(t) × dPD_b(t)
BCVA = CVA - DVA
PV_risky = PV_risk_free - BCVA

Where $NEE(t) = \mathbb{E}[\max(-V(t), 0)]$ is the Negative Expected Exposure (the counterparty's exposure to our bank).

3. Exposure Profiles: EE, EPE, and PFE

Unlike bonds where principal is fixed, OTC derivative exposure fluctuates with underlying market drivers:

EE(t) = σ × Notional × √t × [φ(d) + d·Φ(d)]
EPE = (1 / T) × ∫ EE(t) dt
PFE_α(t) = Notional × [μ·t + z_α × σ√t]

For interest rate and cross-currency swaps, the exposure profile typically exhibits a classic "diffusion hump" that rises with $\sqrt{t}$ early in the trade before amortizing toward zero at maturity.

4. ISDA CSA Collateral Netting Mitigation

Credit Support Annexes mitigate CVA by mandating collateral transfers whenever portfolio positive mark-to-market exceeds an uncollateralized Threshold ($H$):

EE_csa(t) ≈ min[EE(t), Threshold] + σ·Notional·√MPOR
CVA_mitigation = (CVA_uncoll - CVA_csa) / CVA_uncoll

Standard regulatory Margin Period of Risk (MPOR) is 10 to 20 days. Effective collateral agreements typically reduce total CVA capital charges by over 80%.

Counterparty Credit Risk Mastery Quiz
Frequently Asked Questions

Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) is the market-implied price of counterparty credit risk on an over-the-counter (OTC) derivative portfolio. It represents the difference between the risk-free portfolio value and the true risky value taking into account the probability that the counterparty may default before the contract matures: Risky Value = Risk-Free Value - CVA.

Unilateral CVA models only the risk of the counterparty defaulting while assuming the reporting bank is risk-free. Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA) reflects the reporting bank's own credit risk, representing the expected gain if the bank defaults while having a negative portfolio exposure to the counterparty. Bilateral CVA (BCVA = CVA - DVA) synthesizes both default risks to compute fair two-way exit value under IFRS 13 and US GAAP Fair Value rules.

Expected Exposure (EE) is the average mark-to-market exposure at future date t across simulated market paths. Expected Positive Exposure (EPE) is the time-weighted average of positive EE over the lifetime of the transaction. Potential Future Exposure (PFE) is a high-percentile tail risk measure (typically 95th or 99th percentile) representing the maximum potential credit loss at a given confidence level, widely used for credit limit sizing and Basel regulatory capital.

An ISDA Credit Support Annex (CSA) establishes collateral posting agreements between counterparties. When portfolio exposure exceeds an agreed threshold plus minimum transfer amount (MTA), the out-of-the-money party must post eligible cash or sovereign securities. This caps the uncollateralized exposure to the Margin Period of Risk (MPOR, typically 10 to 20 days), drastically reducing Expected Exposure and cutting CVA by 70% to 95%.

Wrong-Way Risk (WWR) occurs when exposure to a counterparty is positively correlated with the counterparty's probability of default. For example, buying credit protection on a sovereign from a domestic bank in that same country creates extreme WWR because if the sovereign deteriorates, exposure surges precisely when the bank's own default risk escalates.