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Printable student investigation and teacher guide
Motel Simulator Worksheet
Plan a fair motel experiment, calculate room-performance measures, compare a baseline with one operating change, and defend a recommendation using financial, guest, capacity, and quality evidence.
1. Frame one useful investigation
Begin with a decision question, not a goal such as “make more money.” A useful question names one input and the connected results you expect it to influence. For example: How does lowering the base nightly rate affect occupancy, RevPAR, channel fees, guest satisfaction, and monthly profit?
My investigation question:
Why this question matters to the motel:
Choose the one main decision to test:
2. Plan a controlled comparison
Use the same motel model and location for every run. Record a baseline before changing anything important. Then change one decision while holding other settings stable. Match the observation period as closely as the model allows; a three-day result should not be compared with a full month as if the exposure were equal.
Prediction: If I change __________ from __________ to __________, then __________ will change because:
Guardrails: I will reject the change even if profit rises when it causes this unacceptable condition, service, cash, staffing, or guest outcome:
3. Calculate the motel measures before judging the strategy
Use values from the same time period. Write the units beside every result. If the simulator already reports a value, calculate it independently when enough inputs are visible and note any rounding difference.
Reasonableness check: Is RevPAR lower than or equal to ADR? ☐ Yes ☐ No. If no, recheck whether occupancy was written as a decimal and whether all figures use the same period.
4. Record baseline, test, and repeat evidence
Copy results at the same stopping point. Repeat the test when a random event, seasonal shift, or large demand change makes the first comparison difficult to interpret. The repeat is evidence about consistency—not permission to ignore a result you dislike.
| Run | Main setting | Rooms sold | Occupancy | ADR | RevPAR | Channel fees | Room condition | Review score | Lost bookings | Profit / cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | ||||||||||
| Test | ||||||||||
| Repeat |
5. Diagnose the pattern before recommending a change
Check the pattern closest to your result, then explain it with the evidence table. More than one pattern may apply.
- Occupancy rose but profit fell: a lower rate, promotion cost, channel fee, extra payroll, or variable room cost may have absorbed the added revenue.
- ADR rose but rooms sold fell sharply: the higher contribution per booking may not have offset the lost volume. Compare RevPAR and profit rather than price alone.
- Demand was available but bookings were lost: service coverage, usable room capacity, or room condition may be the constraint. Expansion is only one possible response.
- Short-term profit rose while condition or reviews fell: deferred maintenance or under-staffing may have shifted costs into the future and weakened future demand.
- RevPAR improved but cash weakened: marketing, renovation, room additions, or other timing effects may require cash before their benefits appear.
- The repeat did not match the first test: seasonality, random events, demand variation, or a second changed setting may be influencing the result. Narrow the claim and test again.
Which pattern best explains my result, and which numbers support it?
What evidence would make me reject this explanation?
6. Write an evidence-bounded motel recommendation
Claim: Which setting should this simulated motel use next?
Evidence: Cite at least three numbers, including one financial measure and one guest, quality, or capacity measure.
Reasoning: Explain the path from the changed decision through demand, price, channel cost, capacity, condition, or service to the observed result.
Tradeoff and uncertainty: What became worse, what remains unknown, and which model assumption limits the claim?
Next test and stop rule: What will you test next, and which result would make you pause or reverse the change?
Teacher guide: a 50-minute motel decision lab
- Launch—5 minutes: distinguish occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, contribution, profit, and cash. Ask why a full motel might still lose money.
- Plan—7 minutes: pairs choose one motel model, one decision variable, matching controls, a prediction, and a guardrail.
- Baseline—8 minutes: students preserve the opening setup, run to an agreed stopping point, and record all eleven evidence fields.
- Controlled test—10 minutes: change only the selected decision, use the same observation period, and record the test. Repeat when time permits or when a major event distorts comparison.
- Calculate and diagnose—8 minutes: verify occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, and net contribution; then choose a diagnosis pattern.
- Recommend—7 minutes: each student writes an individual claim with three numbers, a tradeoff, a limitation, and a stop rule.
- Debrief—5 minutes: compare teams that improved occupancy but not profit, or profit but not condition. Reward bounded explanations over confident guesses.
Suggested teacher answers and look-fors
Why can higher occupancy be weaker? A discount or third-party booking can add occupied rooms while lowering retained revenue per room and increasing service costs. Students should connect occupancy with ADR, channel fees, condition, and profit.
When is adding rooms justified? Repeated lost bookings may indicate a capacity constraint, but students should also check service capacity, room condition, contribution, and cash. If service or quality is the actual constraint, adding rooms can make the system worse.
What makes a claim strong? A strong claim names the tested setting, cites comparable results, explains a mechanism, admits an uncertainty, protects a guardrail, and proposes a smaller next test. “This strategy always works” is not supported by a few simulated periods.
Access and participation options
Use one projected simulator with students acting as rate, operations, finance, and evidence leads when devices are limited. Allow typed, dictated, or oral recommendations using the same evidence requirements. Give the formulas before the activity when calculation is not the learning target, and use the accessible classroom planning guide for equivalent participation routes.
Quick 12-point assessment rubric
- Experiment design (0–3): names one changed variable, useful controls, matching periods, a reasoned prediction, and a guardrail.
- Calculations and evidence (0–3): records comparable results and correctly interprets occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, fees, quality, and profit.
- Business reasoning (0–3): explains a plausible decision-to-result chain and distinguishes revenue, contribution, profit, and cash.
- Recommendation (0–3): supports a bounded claim with numbers, a tradeoff, a model limitation, and a useful next test or stop rule.
For a longer assignment, use the complete 16-point simulation rubric, controlled experiment guide, and one-page decision brief template.
Responsible-use and real-world limits
The Motel Simulator is a simplified learning model. It does not establish what a real property should charge, spend, build, advertise, or require from workers and guests. Real lodging decisions can involve building and fire codes, accessibility, employment rules, taxes, insurance, health and safety duties, permits, financing terms, privacy, payment security, consumer-protection rules, environmental requirements, and local market evidence.
Do not treat simulated review scores as permission to manipulate, purchase, or fabricate real reviews. Do not interpret marketing spend as guaranteed demand, and do not use occupancy as a reason to ignore safety, maintenance, accessibility, fair treatment, or employee workload. For a real decision, verify current requirements with primary government sources and qualified local professionals.
In class, protect student privacy: the worksheet needs no account, personal business information, or real guest data. Use fictional motel names and model outputs.
Motel worksheet FAQ
What should students change in the Motel Simulator experiment?
Change one major decision, such as nightly rate, booking promotion, staffing, room refresh, or marketing. Keep the motel model and other important settings as stable as possible so the comparison has a clearer interpretation.
What is the difference between occupancy and RevPAR?
Occupancy is the percentage of available rooms sold. RevPAR is room revenue per available room and combines ADR with occupancy. Neither measure equals profit.
Does the highest occupancy produce the best motel result?
Not necessarily. Discounts, channel fees, labor, maintenance, and service strain can make a fuller motel less profitable or less sustainable than a carefully priced motel with slightly lower occupancy.
How long does the motel worksheet activity take?
A focused baseline-and-test activity takes about 30 minutes. A 50-minute lesson allows a repeated run, calculations, team comparison, written recommendation, and debrief.
Can this simulation predict whether a real motel will succeed?
No. It omits many local legal, safety, tax, accessibility, labor, insurance, financing, and market requirements. Real decisions require current local information and qualified advice.